Jobless Claims Remain Stubbornly High

The MSM is painting this as too rosy for my take.  Here is what came across  from AP Headline

Unemployment claims drop as home sales rise

You would think that all is ok in the world.  That is not the case.

RDQ Economics explains this in their market commentary:

Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 456,000 in the week ending April 17th (the week that corresponds with the April employment survey period). The four-week average of claims increased 2,750 to 460,250 (for comparison, the four-week average of claims was 464,250 in the March employment survey week).

BOTTOM LINE: Although reasonably in line with expectations, jobless claims remain stubbornly high in mid-April (at similar levels to those seen during the March payroll survey week). We would not expect private payrolls to show as large a gain in April as seen in March, however, since March was likely boosted by weather rebound effects. Headline payrolls in April will likely be dominated by the hiring of temporary Census workers but excluding government workers, at this point we would expect to see only a modest gain in payrolls (in the region of 50,000 to 75,000) in April. We still need to see initial claims to drop to the 400,000 area to signal the emergence of solid private sector job creation in our judgment.


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