UBS: Growth, and lots of it

Recap of the conference call with UBS Economist Paul Donovan
China's Q1 growth was above expectations at 11.9% (though the history was revised, making context tricky). This is not necessarily export led growth given the strength of domestic housing etc. China's inflation remained benign, however, creating a dilemma for policy makers.

Business sentiment and industrial production from the US are forecast above consensus, though yesterday's positive data flow may have allowed markets to factor in upside risks. The Beige Book was generally positive too, though credit conditions were reported unchanged.

The NAHB housing index is due in the US, in the wake of foreclosure figures hitting new highs in Q1 (a 35% yoy increase in foreclosure notices). Foreclosure and bankruptcy may be more prevalent in the US than elsewhere, but this may dampen a housing recovery.

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