International trade rebounds worldwide
The softening in trade volumes in April (real exports fell 2.5% in April and real imports declined 1.5%) was not corroborated by global data on exports and imports—we look for a rebound in May, although nominal imports may have been held back by a price-related decline in oil imports as imported petroleum prices fell 5.0% in the month. We expect that the nominal trade deficit widened to $40.8 billion in May from $40.3 billion in April.
TRADE INCONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL SLOWING
The release of U.S. international trade data is lagged relative to many other countries. For example, Germany and Japan (among other countries) have already released May trade data and June trade figures are available for China and Brazil. Export growth in European, Asian, and Latin American countries remained fairly robust in May and June, which does not support a picture of a substantial slowing in global economic activity (and is completely inconsistent with a double-dip). Over the three months ending June, Chinese exports have risen 86.9% at an annual rate.
July 13th economic activity - International trade