ADP reports October payrolls rise 43K in October

This is being touted as a strong report, while due to the monthly volatility in the figures, I would say it is more of the same.  Some of the more strange numbers would be the difference in the weakness of the manufacturing employment numbers as published by ADP and strength that we see in the ISM manufacturing survey.  All in all, it is better than a weak employment numbers, but the data is so volatile to require multiple months of strong growth in order to see a trend.  We'll stay tuned and cautiously optimistic, via ADP:
ADP estimates October private payrolls rose 43,000 which, compared to a revised 2,000 decline in September, points to month-to-month strength for Friday's employment report.
According to the ADP Report, employment in the service-providing sector rose by 77,000 in October, the ninth consecutive monthly gain. This increase was enough to offset an employment decline in the goods-producing sector of 34,000. Construction employment dropped by 23,000 during October and manufacturing employment declined 12,000.
“Today’s ADP National Employment Report shows that U.S. private sector employment remains frustratingly stagnant,” said Gary C. Butler, President and Chief Executive Officer of ADP. “The new Congress has a great opportunity to make job creation priority one by taking actions that both reduce uncertainty across the economy and incentivize businesses to invest and expand.”
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “Since employment began rising in February, the monthly gain has averaged 34,000 with a range of -2,000 to +65,000 during the period. October’s figure is within this recent range and is consistent with the deceleration of economic growth that occurred in the spring.
Employment gains of this magnitude are not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate.  Given modest GDP growth in the second and thirds quarters, and the usual lag of employment behind GDP, it would not be surprising to see several more months of lethargic employment gains, even if the economic recovery gathers momentum.”
“Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, decreased by 2,000 while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 24,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 21,000,” said Prakken.

Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights – October Report:
• Total employment: +43,000
• Small businesses +21,000
• Medium businesses +24,000
• Large businesses -2,000
• Goods-producing sector: -34,000
• Service-providing sector: +77,000
• Manufacturing industry: -12,000


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