More evidence of a change in the labor market conditions; continuing claims fall for fourth week straight

Its about time.  A trend has begun and is picking up steam.  Jobless claims are consistently falling. 

In the week ending Nov. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was a much lower than consensus 435 K, which represents a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 459 K. The 4-week moving average is steadily falling to 447K, down 10 K from the previous week's revised average of 457 K.

Continuing claims also continue to come down, 86 K lower to 4.3 MM. The four-week average of 4.4 MM million is down more than 100 K from a month ago and 1.4 MM from the year prior.

Another interesting sidenote is where the jobs are being gained and where they are still shedding . California continues to lead the world, at least in terms of job losses, with a continuing claims increase of 6 K which they atribute to service sector job losses.  Florida and South Carolina are the states which are leading in job creation with 3.4 K and 2.4 K decrease in continuing claims. 

Could the statewide figures be an indication of where the jobs are being created and lost?  Stay tuned as monthly figures are volatile.

While this is all good news.  Zacks certainly is not impressed.  They make the case that the real reason for the continuing claims decline is because these folks are simply moving from the unemployment insureance to extended benefits program which is run by the federal gov't vs the state.  Via Zacks:
We seem to be stuck in a pseudo recovery, but if the current downward trend can be sustained, there is real hope. The economy is growing, but not at the sort of rate needed to add a significant number of jobs and to put a dent in the huge army of the unemployed.

It was after the meltdown that businesses started to cut jobs at an unprecedented pace. Many of those people still have not found jobs, but they are now aging out of even the extended benefits. By this point, it is a pretty good bet that they have depleted their savings and run up all the debt they can in trying to make ends meet.
Jobless claims start to fall; source Econoday


Zacks on why unemployment is not decreasing as much as you might think
Department of Labor release
Claims need to fall below 425K before we pop the cork


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