UK think tank gives the chance of Euro lasting next decade at 20%
Centre for Economics and Business Research, has given the Euro long odds. Much worse odds than even the most pessimistic. They have pinned the odds of the Euro lasting the decade at 20%, or in other words, it has an 80% chance of failure. Via Telegraph:
In its annual list of predictions, the CEBR said a new eurozone crisis was its number one forecast for 2011, citing the hundreds of billions of euros of debt that members must replace this year.More
"If the euro doesn't break up, this could be the year when it weakens substantially towards parity with the dollar," said Douglas Williams, chief executive of CEBR.
Spain and Italy alone must refinance more than €400bn (£343bn) of debt in the first half of the year, which could prove impossible given investor fears over the finances of southern European countries.
"The euro might break up at this point, though European politicians are normally able to respond to a crisis and I suspect that what will break up the euro will be the failure of most of the countries to take the tough medicine necessary to make their economies competitive over the longer term," said Mr Douglas.