For the second consecutive year, EconomyPolitics picks Africa as the fastest growing region for the next ten years

The top fastest growing countries over the next 10 years (above 25 MM):


This is the second in a three part series where we identify the most attractive international investment opportunities for the next ten years. We start out by looking at economic efficiency, i.e. the fundamental freedoms and legal framework, which facilitates successful investing. Second we look at growth rates and finally we look at places where economic opportunity will be taking place.

When you look at future growth rates, it is a function of economic freedom and GDP per capita. All other things equal, high economic freedom and low GDP per capita, both lead to high economic growth.

EconomyPolitics Methodology

Estimating next year’s GDP growth is hard to get right. To an investor looking to place capital, it is easy to confuse next year’s economic growth with long term potential. As we are no likelier than the next economist to “get it right” in the short term, we have chosen to focus on longer–term trends, i.e. the ten year growth rates, which in the end dominate.

We forecast how long it would take for a country to reach the prosperity level of the United States as measured by GDP per capita. If a country was free and open, they become on par to the United States in 40 years. After World War II, Europe was poor and destitute and its infrastructure was destroyed, but it was relatively free and open for business. Many of the more open ones caught up in terms of GDP per capita to the United States in about 40 years.

We use the 40 year as an anchor and assume that any country that is free and open will catch up in 40 years. The lower the GDP per capita, the faster the growth. We also make adjustmenst for economic efficiency and population growth.

So where are the places that will grow the most over the coming decade? Africa stands as a bright spot for growth. This is the second year that we have highlighted Africa as a continent of hope.

Rank       

Country

Population..........

Efficiency.......
Score

GDP
per cap      

10 yr.
growth
1Rwanda10,276,0000.44$90010.52%
2Uganda33,888,0000.35$1,3009.98%
3Ghana24,297,0000.48$1,5009.84%
4Zambia13,148,0000.47$1,5009.49%
5Kenya40,901,0000.36$1,6008.98%
6Kyrgyzstan5,558,0000.43$2,1008.54%
7Madagascar        20,216,0000.33$1,0008.38%
8Ethiopia81,764,0000.66$9008.33%
9Jordan6,464,0000.41$5,3008.23%

10
Georgia4,371,0000.44$4,8008.14%
11Malawi15,628,0000.49$9008.13%
12Mozambique23,304,0000.36$9007.98%
13Tanzania44,644,0000.47$1,4007.81%
14India1,192,407,000    0.38$3,4007.77%
15Vietnam86,639,0000.47$3,1007.76%
16Bangladesh165,498,0000.51$1,6007.73%
17Mongolia2,711,0000.49$3,3007.63%
18Philippines94,062,0000.33$3,5007.44%
19Indonesia234,100,0000.39$4,3007.31%
20Burkina Faso16,247,0000.58$1,2007.13%
21Thailand63,795,0000.64$8,7007.11%
22Pakistan171,576,0000.44$2,6007.03%
23Mali14,913,0000.58$1,2006.92%
24Nicaragua5,848,0000.46$2,9006.91%
25Peru29,499,0000.42$9,2006.87%
26Morocco32,146,0000.55$4,9006.79%
27Guatemala14,323,0000.29$5,2006.78%
28El Salvador6,267,0000.48$7,3006.76%
29Moldova3,564,0000.56$2,3006.66%
30China1,343,099,0000.48$7,4006.66%
31Paraguay6,501,0000.59$4,9006.65%
32Honduras7,617,0000.65$4,2006.57%
33Senegal12,857,0000.53$1,6006.56%
34Egypt78,901,0000.36$6,2006.55%
35Armenia3,228,0000.37$5,8006.51%
36Sri Lanka20,428,0000.63$4,9006.37%
37Chile17,160,0000.49$15,5006.27%
38Namibia2,192,0000.42$6,9006.23%
39Benin9,204,0000.37$1,5006.11%
40Nigeria157,870,0000.55$2,4006.06%
41Colombia45,859,0000.63$9,8006.01%
42Tunisia10,430,0000.31$9,5005.86%
43Malaysia28,799,0000.56$14,7005.86%
44South Africa49,730,0000.56$10,7005.81%
45Nepal29,947,0000.66$1,2005.77%
46Panama3,507,0000.52$12,7005.55%
47Mauritius1,298,0000.61$13,5005.48%
48Albania3,187,0000.54$8,0005.46%
49Mexico108,777,0000.30$13,8005.37%
50Costa Rica4,643,0000.56$11,4005.23%
51Turkey72,239,0000.31$12,3005.21%
52Macedonia2,054,0000.51$9,4005.19%
53Jamaica2,740,0000.50$8,4005.04%
54Côte d'Ivoire21,530,0000.73$1,7004.97%
55Oman2,936,0000.77$25,8004.94%
56Lesotho2,070,0000.55$1,7004.92%
57Cameroon19,955,0000.67$2,3004.86%
58Botswana1,978,0000.61$13,1004.84%
59New Zealand4,358,0000.42$28,0004.75%
60Brazil194,553,0000.60$10,9004.70%
61Bolivia10,015,0000.24$4,8004.67%
62Azerbaijan8,961,0000.51$11,0004.63%
63Kazakhstan15,835,0000.28$12,5004.51%
64Romania21,469,0000.60$11,5004.41%
65Cyprus798,0000.55$21,0004.39%
66Lithuania3,340,0000.34$15,9004.36%
67United Arab Emirates4,775,0000.07$40,2004.32%
68Dominican Republic10,241,0000.80$8,6004.27%
69Syria22,386,0000.85$4,8004.22%
70Bosnia and Herzegovina..........        3,792,0000.55$6,6004.19%
71Uruguay3,377,0000.72$13,6004.18%
72Bulgaria7,545,0000.59$12,8004.10%
73Guyana764,0000.72$6,8004.10%
74Mauritania3,385,0000.67$2,1003.97%
75Estonia1,332,0000.48$19,0003.97%
76Latvia2,240,0000.76$14,5003.96%
77Burundi8,589,0000.73$3003.86%
78Montenegro618,0000.65$9,9003.81%
79Serbia9,863,0000.40$11,0003.77%
80Israel7,613,0000.83$29,5003.68%
81Slovakia5,425,0000.33$22,2003.54%
82Poland38,082,0000.67$18,8003.48%
83Hungary10,006,0000.87$19,0003.47%
84Algeria35,317,0000.75$7,4003.45%
85Portugal10,660,0000.16$23,0003.40%
86Ecuador14,229,0000.87$7,8003.36%
87Ukraine45,712,0000.41$6,7003.21%
88Ireland4,510,0000.66$37,6003.10%
89Australia22,347,0000.81$41,3003.09%
90Canada34,157,0000.83$39,6003.07%
91South Korea48,463,0000.66$30,2003.04%
92Croatia4,433,0000.63$17,5003.01%
93United Kingdom61,807,0000.35$35,1002.97%
94Denmark5,549,0000.36$37,0002.88%
95Czech Republic10,468,0000.68$25,6002.82%
96Argentina40,564,0000.80$15,0002.80%
97France65,444,0000.66$33,3002.78%
98Russia141,242,0000.48$15,9002.75%
99Iran74,782,0000.76$11,2002.75%
100Finland5,358,0000.61$35,3002.74%
101Kuwait3,092,0000.78$51,7002.73%
102Bahrain802,0000.75$40,4002.55%
103Hong Kong7,046,0000.50$45,600..........2.51%
104Spain46,014,0000.87$29,5002.49%
105Japan127,381,0000.50$34,2002.47%
106Taiwan23,125,0000.53$35,1002.47%
107Slovenia2,049,0000.85$28,4002.41%
108Germany81,850,0000.37$35,9002.35%
109Sweden9,346,0000.75$39,0002.34%
110Netherlands16,660,0000.96$40,5002.29%
111Switzerland7,787,0000.42$42,9002.28%
112United States310,874,0000.70$47,4002.27%
113Iceland322,0000.88$38,4002.19%
114Belgium10,766,0000.37$37,9002.00%
115Austria8,360,0000.65$40,3001.83%
116Italy60,188,0000.80$30,7001.83%
117Singapore5,044,0000.52$62,2001.57%
118Greece11,277,0000.87$30,2001.53%
119Chad11,522,0000.12$1,6001.25%
120Angola18,894,0000.24$8,7001.22%
121Venezuela29,016,0000.20$12,6001.17%
122Zimbabwe12,424,0000.95$1001.06%
123Norway4,867,0000.60$59,1000.70%
124Luxembourg499,0000.83$81,800-0.07%

Regional Differences

The region that should grow fastest is Africa. We have projected the 10 year growth rate for Africa at 6.32%. Africa’s young population is growing fast, they are very poor and they are finally starting to end the cycle of war and replace it with a system of good governance. All those things increase GDP and bode well for economic growth.

Asia follows close behind. They come in at 5.92%. Their population is growing slower than Africa, and their standard of living is greater, but they also have a greater degree of economic efficiency.

Latin America follows at 5.32%. That number would be much higher were it not for Hugo Chavez and his circle of Social Autocrats in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and Argentina.

The Middle East came in a 5.04%. That number could surprise on the upside should the region’s recent turmoil blossom into good governance. But, the truth is no one knows the outcome of Egypt and the rest of the Arab world.

Oceania follows mostly because growth in Indonesia is pulling the rest of the countries up and finishes at 4.18%.

Europe’s expected growth is 3.12%, but it is a mishmash of the heavily indebted PIIGS which lower growth and Eastern Europe which raise growth.

North America’s expected growth comes in last place at 2.67%. However, the region is the least diverse (in number of countries). There are no undeveloped countries and, the population, while not as old as Europe’s, is not as young as Africa’s.

Regional Data

Africa average: 6.32%

Rank     

Country


10 yr.
growth
1Rwanda10.52%
2Uganda9.98%
3Ghana9.84%
4Zambia9.49%
5Kenya8.98%
7Madagascar     8.38%
8Ethiopia8.33%
11Malawi8.13%
12Mozambique       7.98%
13Tanzania7.81%
20Burkina Faso7.13%
23Mali6.92%
33Senegal6.56%
38Namibia6.23%
39Benin6.11%
40Nigeria6.06%
44South Africa5.81%
47Mauritius5.48%
54Côte d'Ivoire4.97%
56Lesotho4.92%
57Cameroon4.86%
58Botswana4.84%
74Mauritania3.97%
77Burundi3.86%
119Chad1.25%
120Angola1.22%
122Zimbabwe1.06%



Asia average: 5.92%
Rank     Country

10 yr.
growth
6Kyrgyzstan8.54%
14India7.77%
15Vietnam7.76%
16Bangladesh7.73%
17Mongolia7.63%
18Philippines7.44%
21Thailand7.11%
22Pakistan7.03%
30China6.66%
36Sri Lanka6.37%
43Malaysia5.86%
45Nepal5.77%
63Kazakhstan4.51%
91South Korea     3.04%
103Hong Kong2.51%
105Japan2.47%
106Taiwan2.47%


Latin America average: 5.16%
Rank    Country

10 yr.
growth

24

Nicaragua

6.91%
25Peru6.87%
27Guatemala6.78%
28El Salvador6.76%
31Paraguay6.65%
32Honduras6.57%
37Chile6.27%
41Colombia6.01%
46Panama5.55%
49Mexico5.37%
50Costa Rica5.23%
53Jamaica5.04%
60Brazil4.70%
61Bolivia4.67%
68Dominican      
Republic
4.27%
71Uruguay4.18%
73Guyana4.10%
86Ecuador3.36%
96Argentina2.80%
121Venezuela1.17%



Middle East average: 5.04%
Rank    Country10 yr.
growth

9

Jordan

8.23%
10Georgia8.14%
26Morocco6.79%
34Egypt6.55%
35Armenia6.51%
42Tunisia5.86%
51Turkey5.21%
55Oman4.94%
62Azerbaijan4.63%
67United Arab      
Emirates

4.32%
69Syria4.22%
80Israel3.68%
84Algeria3.45%
99Iran2.75%
101Kuwait2.73%
102Bahrain2.55%


Oceania average 4.18%

Rank     

Country
10 yr.
growth

19

Indonesia

7.31%
59New Zealand    4.75%
89Australia3.09%
117Singapore1.57%

Europe average: 3.12%


Rank   


Country
10 yr.
growth

29

Moldova

6.66%
48Albania5.46%
52Macedonia5.19%
64Romania4.41%
65Cyprus4.39%
66Lithuania4.36%
70Bosnia and
Herzegovina   
4.19%
72Bulgaria4.10%
75Estonia3.97%
76Latvia3.96%
78Montenegro3.81%
79Serbia3.77%
81Slovakia3.54%
82Poland3.48%
83Hungary3.47%
85Portugal3.40%
87Ukraine3.21%
88Ireland3.10%
92Croatia3.01%
93United Kingdom    2.97%
94Denmark2.88%
95Czech Republic2.82%
97France2.78%
98Russia2.75%
100Finland2.74%
104Spain2.49%
107Slovenia2.41%
108Germany2.35%
109Sweden2.34%
110Netherlands2.29%
111Switzerland2.28%
113Iceland2.19%
114Belgium2.00%
115Austria1.83%
116Italy1.83%
118Greece1.53%
123Norway0.70%
124Luxembourg-0.07%


North America average: 2.67%

Rank    Country10 yr.
growth

90

Canada

3.07%
112United States    2.27%

For media inquiries into the EconomyPolitics projections of GDP growth , please contact economipolitics [at] gmail [dot] com.  Please feel free to use the full index, but must source back to EconomyPolitics.

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