China inflation numbers come in at 4.6% YOY, with fresh fruit increasing 35%

China reports official inflation rate of 4.6% year-over-year.  The numbers show 15% increase in grain prices, 19% increase in eggs prices and a staggering 34% increase in fresh fruit prices.

The headline 4.6% reading should be taken with a high dose of skepticism.  The only articles that come in significantly below 4.6% are Tobacco, Clothing, Recreation and Transportation.  Food and Shelter are significantly above.  This leads to my doubting the official numbers since that 4.6% is a weighted average of the components.  And we all know that especially in the rural poor area of China, up to 70% of their disposable income go toward food and housing.  What consolation is it for them that Recreation prices have decreased.  The government says that prices in rural areas have increased by 5.1%.  How can that be?  Via StatsCn:


Item
The same month last year =100
The same period last year =100
Total
Urban
Rural
Total
Urban
Rural







Consumer Price Index
104.6
104.4
105.1
103.3
103.2
103.6
1. Food
109.6
109.4
110.1
107.2
107.1
107.5
    Grain
115.6
115.1
116.4
111.8
111.5
112.3
    Meat, Poultry and Their Products
110.2
109.9
110.9
102.9
102.6
103.5
    Eggs
119.0
119.5
118.0
108.3
108.4
108.2
    Aquatic Products
110.9
111.4
109.5
108.1
108.5
106.9
    Fresh Vegetables
94.3
92.9
98.6
118.7
117.8
121.3
    Fresh Fruits
134.4
135.7
130.5
115.6
115.0
117.5
 2. Tobacco, Liquor and Articles
101.8
101.9
101.6
101.6
101.7
101.4
 3. Clothing
100.1
99.9
100.6
99.0
98.9
99.4
 4. Household Facilities, Articles and Services
101.2
101.3
100.7
100.0
99.9
100.1
 5. Health Care and Personal Articles
104.0
104.1
103.7
103.2
103.2
103.2
 6. Transportation and Communication
99.3
99.1
100.1
99.6
99.4
100.3
 7. Recreation, Education and Culture Articles
100.7
100.6
101.0
100.6
100.4
100.9
 8. Residence
106.0
105.6
106.9
104.5
104.5
104.5

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